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Polls suggest the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) is on course for a narrow victory in regional elections that will gauge the strength of the independence movement and whether the conciliatory approach of Spain’s socialist prime minister, Pedro Sanchezit paid off.
A survey for RTVE and TV3 released shortly after voting closed at 8pm local time on Sunday, gave the PSC 37-40 seats, followed by the centre-right, pro-independence party Junts with 33-36 seats.
The ruling, pro-independence Catalan Republican Left was third with 24-27 seats, while the conservative People’s Party (PP) and the far-right Vox party were in a close battle for fourth place with 9-12 seats and 10-11 seats respectively.
Another survey, for El Periódicoputs PSC first with 37-40 seats, followed by Junts with 30-33, ERC with 21-24, Vox with 11-13 seats and PP with 10-13.
Polls point to days and weeks of deal-making and horse-trading ahead, as no party is expected to come close to the 68 seats needed for an absolute majority in the 135-seat regional parliament.
Snap elections were called in March by Catalonia’s ERC president Pere Aragones after opposition parties rejected the budget proposed by his minority government.
The ERC ruled in coalition with the Junts, which is led by former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont, who went into self-imposed exile, until heated disagreements led the latter to abandon the government in October 2022
Sunday’s vote comes six and a half years after Puigdemont plunged Spain into its worst political crisis in decades by staging an illegal, unilateral referendum on regional independence and followed it up with a unilateral declaration of independence.
The conservative Spanish government of the time responded by sending thousands of police to stop people from voting, often with violence. He then fired Puigdemont and his cabinet, dissolved the regional parliament and took direct control of Catalonia. Puigdemont escaped Spain to avoid arrest, leaving other key figures in the independence movement to face trial and prison.
Anger has cooled and tensions have eased since Sánchez became prime minister in 2018. Almost three years ago, Sánchez pardoned nine independence leaders about their role in the failed push for secession and called for a new “era of dialogue and understanding”. While the pardons were controversial, they were not as controversial as the amnesty law that Sánchez introduced in April to win the support of the ERC and the Junts and thereby secure his return to office after last summer’s inconclusive general election.
The law – whose most famous beneficiary is Puigdemont – will apply to around 400 people participating in the symbolic independence referendum of November 2014 and the subsequent survey three years later.
Polls consistently pointed to a victory for the PSC, which is led by Salvador Ila, a former Spanish health minister.
Ila acknowledged that some people remain unconvinced by the amnesty, which the PP and others denounced as cynical, self-serving and cowardly political maneuvering by Sanchez, but said the move and other conciliatory gestures had greatly eased tensions.
He accused the ERC and the Junts of being too obsessed with independence to improve Catalonia’s crumbling public services or prepare for drought in the region in the last three years.
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In an Guardian interview on Friday, Ila said a PSC-led government would allow Catalonia to overcome what he called a lost decade of rule by the ERC and Junts.
“These elections could – and must – open a new era in Catalonia, which I would define in two words: the verbs ‘unite’ and ‘serve,'” he said. “When you talk to people about what matters to them, they talk about the drought, about education – which has always been excellent in Catalonia, but which now lags behind the rest of Spain – about infrastructure, about safety, about health.”
Puigdemont, who is preparing to return to Spain after the amnesty law takes effect, said his party could withdraw its support for Sanchez if it did not like the composition of a PSC-led government.
During the latest campaign rally in the south of France on Friday, Puigdemont called on the faithful to come out and vote. “Enough abuse of our language and culture and regret for what we want to be. The time to say ‘enough!’ is now – to say it the day after the election will be too late.”
Aragones also urged pro-independence voters to show up in force. “I’m asking you to fill the ballot box with Republican votes,” he said Friday. “To build a future of dignity and freedom.” For independence, social justice, against the monarchy and against corruption and in favor of all of Catalonia.
Recent surveys show that appetite for an independent Catalonia continues to wane. At the height of the crisis in October 2017, a poll by the Catalan government’s public opinion research center found that 48.7% of Catalans supported independence and 43.6% did not. A survey in March from the same center found that 51% were against and 42% were in favor.
Despite its regional nature, Sunday’s election will be closely watched in the national parliament. Sanchez will be hoping the results justify his soft-soft strategy, while PP will be hoping to push Vox into fourth place.
“I am asking for the votes of all those who want a new chapter in Catalonia,” PP leader Alberto Nunes Feijoo said on Friday. “I am asking for these votes so that we can guarantee equality and freedoms and that Catalonia can once again become a welcoming, open and safe land.
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